Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Levente Timar
Author-X-Name-First: Levente
Author-X-Name-Last: Timar
Author-Email: levente.timar@motu.org.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Title: Yield to Change: Modelling the Land-use Response to Climate-Driven Changes in Pasture Production
Abstract: In contrast to most economic drivers of land-use change, climate-related drivers display substantial geographic variation. Accounting for this spatial heterogeneity is important in simulations of the land-use response to climate change. I use a discrete choice model to estimate the relationship between pasture yields and rural land use. Land-use predictions from the model respond to climate change through its effects on pasture yields. This econometric model provides the foundation for the development of a new module of the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model, the Yield Change Module. In addition to enabling simulations of overall land-use change under different climate scenarios, the module also draws on the estimation results to allocate land-use change spatially. I employ the Yield Change Module to perform illustrative mid-century and end-of-century simulations of land use in a climate scenario characterised by a high level of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). Yield changes in this scenario lead to an expansion (by nearly 600,000 hectares) of dairy area and a fall (by over 800,000 hectares) of sheep-beef area by the end of the century. The implied rate of land-use change is modest relative to that observed in New Zealand’s recent past
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2016-10
File-URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/16_15.pdf
Number: 16_15
Classification-JEL: Q15, Q54
Keywords: Land use, climate change, pasture production, LURNZ, Yield Change Module
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:16_15