Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name:  Viv Hall
Author-X-Name-First: Viv 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hall
Author-Email:  viv.hall@vuw.ac.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Victoria University of Wellington 
Author-Name:  John McDermott
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: McDermott
Author-Email:  john.mcdermott@rbnz.govt.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Title:  A Quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand
Abstract:  There are no official quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand for the period prior to 1977. We develop a seasonally adjusted series for 1947q2 to 2006q2, by linking quarterly observations from two recent official series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly diffusion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three econometric models are used: the Chow and Lin (1971) model that disaggregates the level of GDP, and the Fernández (1981) and Litterman (1983) models that disaggregate changes in GDP. Statistical properties of the series are evaluated, and movements in the new series are benchmarked against qualitative research findings from New Zealand's post-WWII economic history. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow-Lin model.
Length:  31 pages
Creation-Date:  2007-10
File-URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/07_13.pdf
Number: 07_13
Classification-JEL: C22, C82, E01, E32
Keywords: Quarterly real GDP series; temporal disaggregation; business cycles; New Zealand
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:07_13