Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Suzi Kerr
Author-X-Name-First: Suzi	
Author-X-Name-Last: Kerr
Author-Email: suzi.kerr@motu.org.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Author-Name: Simon Anastasiadis
Author-X-Name-First: Simon	
Author-X-Name-Last: Anastasiadis
Author-Email: simon.anastasiadis@motu.org.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Author-Name: Alex Olssen
Author-X-Name-First: Alex	
Author-X-Name-Last: Olssen
Author-Email: alex.olssen@motu.org.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Author-Name: William Power
Author-X-Name-First: William	
Author-X-Name-Last: Power
Author-Email: w.power@gns.cri.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: GNS Science
Author-Name: Levente Tímár
Author-X-Name-First: Levente	
Author-X-Name-Last: Tímár
Author-Email: levente.timar@motu.org.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and GNS Science
Author-Name: Wei Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Wei	
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Author-Email: wei.zhang@mpi.govt.nz
Author-Workplace-Name: Ministry for Primary Industries
Title: Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand
Abstract:  We perform simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyse the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner. We compare the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluate the importance of the forestry component of the ETS relative to the agricultural component. We also examine the effect of land-use change on the time profile of net emissions from the forestry sector. Our projections for the mid-2020s suggest that under a comprehensive ETS, sequestration associated with new planting could be significant; it may approach 20 percent of national inventory agricultural emissions in 2008. Most of this is driven by the reward for forestry rather than a liability for agricultural emissions. Finally, we present projections of future agricultural output under various policy scenarios.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date:  2012-09
File-URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/12_10.pdf
Number: 12_10
Classification-JEL: Q15, Q18, Q23, Q54
Keywords: land use; land-use change; LURNZ; greenhouse-gas emissions; afforestation; forestry removals; New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme; integrated modelling; agricultural production
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_10