Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Viv B. Hall
Author-Email: viv.hall@vuw.ac.nz
Author-Homepage: https://people.wgtn.ac.nz/viv.hall
Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Author-Workplace-Homepage: https://people.wgtn.ac.nz
Author-Name: John McDermott
Author-Email: john.mcdermott@motu.org.nz
Author-Homepage: https://www.motu.nz/about-us/people/john-mcdermott
Author-Workplace-Name: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Author-Workplace-Homepage: https://www.motu.nz
Author-Name: Peter Thomson
Author-Email: peter@statsresearch.co.nz
Author-Homepage: https://www.statsresearch.co.nz/staff.html
Author-Workplace-Name: Statistics Research Associates Ltd, Wellington, New Zealand
Author-Workplace-Homepage: https://www.statsresearch.co.nz/
Title: On quantitative and graphical measures of the severity of New Zealand’s recessions and strength of its expansions
Abstract: We develop three measures for the shape of business cycle phases, reflecting excess gains and losses relative to constant quarterly growth across the phase. These measures can be seen as representing better or worse economic outcomes during recession and expansion phases relative to constant growth rate paths and, as a consequence, provide summary evaluation measures for such economic outcomes. Using a phase’s constant quarterly growth rate as the benchmark, our methodology builds on Harding and Pagan (2016) by developing quantitative measures that have useful economic interpretations and which are amenable to informative graphical display and analysis. Empirical outcomes are provided for New Zealand’s recession and expansion phases.
Classification-JEL: C1, C22, C82, E32
Keywords: Business cycle phase shape measurement; excess gain and loss measures; business cycle turning
points; business cycle recessions and contractions; New Zealand
Note:
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2026-02-18
Revision-Date: 
Number: 26_02
Publication-Status:
Price: $0.00
File-URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/26_02.pdf
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File-Size: 713KB
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:26_02